Jekyll2026-06-25T21:55:48+00:00https://www.minapollmann.com/feed.xmlMina Pollmann, PhDAn amazing website.Mina PollmannIran-Israel-US War Tests Japan’s Evolving Appetite for Collective Self-Defense2026-03-19T00:00:00+00:002026-03-19T00:00:00+00:00https://www.minapollmann.com/blog/2026/03/19/middle-east-2To read my explainer on what Japan can and cannot do in the Iran war and the legal and political considerations that go into it, click here.

]]>Mina PollmannThe Iran-Israel-US War Is Reconfiguring US Force Posture in the Indo-Pacific2026-03-14T00:00:00+00:002026-03-14T00:00:00+00:00https://www.minapollmann.com/blog/2026/03/14/middle-east-1To read my article on U.S. Indo-Pacific allies’ concerns about U.S. military redeploying assets to the Middle East, click here.

]]>Mina PollmannJapan Is Moving to Expand Defense Exports. Constitutional Revision Is a Bigger Ask.2026-02-26T00:00:00+00:002026-02-26T00:00:00+00:00https://www.minapollmann.com/blog/2026/02/26/japan-domesticTo read my article on the differences between the domestic political processes to expand defense exports and revise the constitution, click here.

]]>Mina PollmannLeiden Asia Centre Report: Preparing for the Actual Worst - Supporting Japanese Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) from Okinawa2026-01-27T00:00:00+00:002026-01-27T00:00:00+00:00https://www.minapollmann.com/blog/2026/01/27/lac-reportThis report asks and answers two questions: (1) What are the weaknesses in the Government of Japan’s (GOJ) current planning for receiving internally displaced persons (IDPs) from Okinawa prefecture? (2) How can GOJ, prefectural governments, and municipal governments better prepare to accept IDPs from Okinawa?

There are three primary weaknesses with GOJ’s current civil protection planning. First, it assumes that in a Taiwan Strait contingency, GOJ will have the political will to declare an “anticipated armed attack situation” early enough for a smooth and timely evacuation. It also assumes away complicating factors such as inbound Taiwanese refugee flows and outbound U.S. military deployment during the “anticipated armed attack situation” period. Second, it does not present potential IDPs with a convincing explanation of why they should evacuate to where GOJ is directing them to during a Taiwan Strait contingency. Furthermore, by being indecisive about where potential IDPs will be evacuated to, GOJ undermines the efforts of the prefectures and municipalities preparing to accept IDPs. Finally, GOJ is asking prefectural and municipal governments to plan for the first one month of evacuation, not the years that a hypothetical U.S.-China war over Taiwan could last.

The experiences of IDPs from the March 11 triple disaster – the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake (GEJE) and associated tsunami and nuclear accident at Fukushima Daiichi – inform us that IDP-related policies will be more effective if they start with the assumption that once evacuated, IDPs are unlikely to return to Okinawa anytime soon. GOJ, prefectural, and municipal governments should offer support to IDPs from the very beginning with this long- term view. This will affect everything from Okinawans’ willingness to be evacuated, how much and how quickly financial support is offered, and who financial support is offered to. GOJ should also offer support based on the individual IDP’s present needs, instead of tying support to criteria such as when they fled or where they fled from. GOJ should prioritize offering long-term housing as soon as possible and creating an automatic, opt-out registration system to identify all IDPs, which will also allow GOJ to better communicate with IDPs and accurately assess IDPs’ evolving needs over time. At the prefectural and municipal levels, government officials should begin to cooperate with relevant non-governmental organizations (NGOs), plan for the necessary bureaucratic reorganization to tackle the multi-faceted challenge of supporting IDPs, and prepare to deal with misinformation and disinformation about support for IDPs.

The lessons drawn from the March 11 experience for GOJ’s contingency planning can also inform the Netherlands and European Union (EU) member states’ planning for accepting and supporting IDPs associated with an invasion of an EU member state, climate change-related impacts, or other natural disaster.

For the full report, click here.

For part one of my summary on The Diplomat, click here.

For part two of my summary on The Diplomat, click here.

]]>Mina PollmannJapan’s Southwest Islands in Focus at Latest Japan-US Defense Minister Meeting2026-01-23T00:00:00+00:002026-01-23T00:00:00+00:00https://www.minapollmann.com/blog/2026/01/23/southwest-islandsTo read my article on the most recent U.S.-Japan Defense Ministers meeting and what that entails for Japan’s southwestern islands - click here.

]]>Mina PollmannCentre for Security, Diplomacy, and Strategy Policy Brief: How to Manage a Patron’s Unpredictability? Japan and South Korea React to the New United States Administration2025-12-17T00:00:00+00:002025-12-17T00:00:00+00:00https://www.minapollmann.com/blog/2025/12/17/csds-briefKey Issues:

  • Japan and South Korea both have higher abandonment concerns, are facing greater burden-sharing pressure and are diplomatically diversifying;
  • Japan’s entrapment concerns are lower than South Korea’s because Japan sees defending Taiwan as more in its own interest than South Korea does;
  • The United States’ (US) unpredictability accelerates trends in Japan towards investing more in its own self-defence, and South Korea’s reaction to the US administration is constrained by the North Korean threat.

For the full report, click here.

]]>Mina PollmannJapan Reacts to the New US National Security Strategy2025-12-09T00:00:00+00:002025-12-09T00:00:00+00:00https://www.minapollmann.com/blog/2025/12/09/nssTo read my article on Japan’s reaction to the U.S. National Security Strategy - respectful insistence that Japan will set its own defense budget - click here.

]]>Mina PollmannUS Steps up Defense Cooperation in Southeast Asia2025-12-04T00:00:00+00:002025-12-04T00:00:00+00:00https://www.minapollmann.com/blog/2025/12/04/southeast-asiaTo read my article on how recent U.S. policy towards the Philippines, Vietnam, and Cambodia, click here.

]]>Mina PollmannSouth Korea Eyes Defense Exports to Europe, Middle East2025-11-25T00:00:00+00:002025-11-25T00:00:00+00:00https://www.minapollmann.com/blog/2025/11/25/korea-armsTo read my article on how South Korea wants to go from being the world’s tenth largest to the world’s fourth largest arms exporter, click here.

]]>Mina PollmannHow Will Japan’s New Leader Approach the North Korea Problem?2025-11-19T00:00:00+00:002025-11-19T00:00:00+00:00https://www.minapollmann.com/blog/2025/11/19/north-koreaTo read my article on Takaichi’s North Korea initiative, click here.

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